The most recent poll question asked that question. As of this writing, there are 266 responses that break down as follows:
- No (59% – 158 Votes)
- Yes (41% – 108 Votes)
Photo: charliebomber/Flickr
Poll inaccuracy aside, I’m a little surprised at the number of players that have had a hole in one. For a majority of the time this poll ran (up until recently), the breakdown has been fluctuating between 35-40% of players having done it.
I would have guessed the number to be somewhat lower, but I guess when I think about it, the odds say that if you play enough golf, it’s going to happen.
According to About.com, Golf Digest reported in 1999 that “one insurance company puts a PGA Tour pro’s chances at 1 in 3,756 and an amateur’s at 1 in 12,750.” A company that sells hole in one insurance puts the odds for an average player at 12,500 and the odds for a tour pro at about 2,500.
Those are reasonably close, so let’s assume the second insurance company’s odds for the sake of discussion.
That means that the majority of us will manage a hole in one some time in our first 12,500 par three holes played. Stated another way, you’d need 2,500 rounds to play that many par three holes (assuming five per course – If you only have four, then you’ll need 3,125 rounds).
In case you think that doesn’t sound like much – if you play five rounds per week, every week of the year, you’ll need over 12 years to play that many rounds. That’s a lot of golf.
So, why so many people with holes in one, despite the statistical long shot?
Well, statistically, you’re likely to make a hole in one once every 12,500 par threes played, but the odds are the same that you’ll do it the first time or the 12,500th time. So, you lucky ones got yours out of the way early.
Of course, many people have multiple holes in one. Seems wrong, considering that most of us are waiting around for our first. Mancil Davis is called “The King of Aces” for good reason. He is credited with 51 holes in one.
As with any statistical estimate, there will always be those who fall outside the calculated range. Sadly, that means that some of us will never get one, no matter how long we play.
It’s reported that Ben Hogan never scored an ace. If he never got one, I almost feel like I don’t even deserve one. I’m guessing Mancil Davis used up mine anyway.
Oh well, I’m still going to be trying. Every time I step onto the tee at a par three, it could be my time. The closest I came was about five or six years ago in late fall. I was playing on a cool, windy day and had about 150 yards to the green with the wind dead in my face. I decided to knock a little 7-iron under the wind. Unfortunately, I yanked it a little left, it ballooned up in the wind and went into the top of a huge oak tree that sits short and left of the green.
Since I couldn’t see the ball come out of the tree and given that there were leaves all over the ground, I decided to play a provisional ball. This time, I hit the exact shot I intended the first time, except it landed 6 feet short of the pin, checked, and rolled into the cup. The slap in the face came when I found my ball in a poor lie under the tree. Instead of a miracle three, I carded a run of the mill bogey. At least I can say I got the ball in the hole from the tee.
Does anyone have any good hole in one (made or missed) story to share?
Loading ...
For those that have a hole in one I am envious. Been close but that only counts in horseshoes, right?
About a decade ago I played around with three friends. Three of us were in our early twenties and one was in his late 50′s early sixties. We played the back nine of our club first. I eagled the 15th hole via hitting the green in two and one putting. On the front nine, the eldest player holed out for an eagle from approximately 120 yards on the first par 5 of that nine. Two holes later another player in our foursome two-hopped a four iron from 220 yards for an ace. Cool to see three different player get an eagle in the same round. And the difficulty increase with each eagle. That was the first hole in one that I had witnessed.
Wow Mike, that’s a shame. I have witnessed a couple holes in one. One was a short par three where a guy thinned a shot, cussed at it all the way till it dropped in the cup. I think he went on to break 90 for the first time.
The second time was when my regular playing partner and I were playing on a cold winter evening at our local par three course that has lights for night play. In the winter (in Texas were talking low to mid 40s), we often get thick fog due to the high humidity. Often the fog is so thick, we can’s see the greens at all. This was the case on this evening when we got to the green we could see the trail of the ball in the dew going right into the cup. That was the 13th hole on one for my 63 year old buddy.
I’ve come close several times, hitting the stick, hitting the lip of the cup, rolling to within less than an inch, but never got one to drop. I figure I should get one soon enough because I play about 60% of my golf on this par three course.
Remaining patient,
-G
Speaking of rolling to within less than an inch, that reminds me of another near-miss I had that I completely forgot about.
In the early fall one year, on a very short par four (about 275 yards), the tee was being seeded and consequently the tee markers were put on a temporary spot in the front. It was about a 220 yard shot.
I grabbed a three iron and hit it perfectly. It ran right up toward the hole and stopped 1 inch short – in an aeration hole. If that hole wasn’t there, the ball might have dropped dead center.
My solitary hole in one last year has quite a nice story. The pin was cut right at the back of a green with a big shelf halfway up it, so you couldn’t see the bottom of the flag. My teeshot was on a perfect line when it hit the green and rolled over the slope – then we heard a loud metallic “clunk” so we knew it had hit the flagstick ( this course has a lot of wind so they use heavy metal flagsticks ). There was a big delay on the next tee, so the 3 ladies we were playing behind had stopped to watch our teeshots, and started jumping up and down and pointing into the hole, so that was how I knew I’d made it !
Postscript : I made this during the semifinals of a big qualifying event for the Dutch Open ( 125 players ) so was expecting and quite happy to pay a substantial bar bill. However the airline KLM was sponsoring the event, so picked up the tab for me and gave me a bottle of champagne into the bargain. Nice timing !
There was a permanent grin on my face for the next 3 days at least.
I have NEVER had a hole in one…BUT…about 25 years ago I was out with a friend in the early morning. I was VERY raw and really had no clue about the game (could the same be said now?) Anyway, I pull-hooked a 4 iron out of bounds on the first swing, and then hit the same club about 6 feet from the pin and rolled right in for an easy three!!
Well I must say, never had a hole in one, it would be nice though!! I did have an eagle on the 18th at Moon Valley CC (Par 4) Driver, 8 iron…but I suppose that does not count since it logged as a two.
)
Either way a hole in one must be a great feeling, perhaps some day.
~Oddly
Cameron
I’ve been close (9 inches) but that’s it.
ONCE! IT was total luck, a short course and a fast green combined, but I did get one once. Of course, I’ve been trying ever since. And no, it wasn’t in putput golf! (Frankly I SUCK at mini golf!)
I’ve had 2 since picking up the game 3 years ago… and seen 3 others!
A friend from one of my first regular foursomes has played golf for 35 years and had never even seen an ace. He wasn’t with me for my 2. But later, during one of our rounds, he FINALLY got his first. We played again 2 weeks later and he got another one!
Earlier this week, another guy from that same foursome got his first ace, and got it on the same hole I got my first, and was with the same guy I was with when I got that ace. Unfortunately, I wasn’t there to witness that one.
That’s the most interesting thing I have heard in quite some time, A hole-in-one insurance !!!!
It seems like such an interesting option. I have heard insurance for some really weird things, but this is one thing I definitely did not expect to hear. All you have to do it seems, is pay a modest fee and get your hole in one award insured. This way, the tournament will not have to pray secretly that no one turns up to win the championship. It is all so meticulously planned that it doesn’t cease to amaze me. Apparently the factors taken into account are the number of golfers, the value of the prize and the distance to the hole. I have heard of people insuring their nose, hands and legs and I think this has got to rank alongside such weird things that people have insured.
The only weirder insurance that I have heard of is the Ransom Insurance Policy!!!!
As strange as it sounds, Andy, it makes sense. The insurance company makes out because holes in one are somewhat unusual, though the odds for one in a particular tournament aren’t as high as you might think. But it allows charity tournaments to give away huge prizes like cars and vacations. If they didn’t have the insurance, they could never offer those prizes because the tournament sponsor would be bankrupted if someone happened to get a hole in one on the big prize hole.
The insurance definitely isn’t new, though. I first heard about it in 1994 or so when I was doing golf course maintenance work in the summer during college.
I have had 2 holes in one. Well one and a half really. The first was 9 years ago playing with the then current Vice Captain in a Saturday comp. The VC stiffed it to a foot on a 130 yard par 3 and said to me “get inside that son”. To his amazement I duly executed a perfect 8 iron that was going nowhere but in the cup from the moment it pitched the green.
The second was a couple of years ago on a par 4 blind dogleg over trees. Smashed a driver in the direction of a temporary green that had been constructed whilst the proper green was being relaid and went for a walk. My playing partner and I searched and searched and thought the ball was lost until we got to the temp green and sure enough the ball was in the hole. I count that one as a half because the temporary cup that had been cut was the size of a dinner plate.
I am writing this , not to brag, but to share that I have had 7 holes in one in the last 10 years. I find this incredible! The only variables I can offer is that I am a 5 handicap and, for the last 9 years, play a standard 6,200yd golf course 250 times a year. Personally, I think t’s pure luck and some people are lucky….so far!
I hit a hole-in-one on a par 4 at stonebridge on long island, 300yds, who wants to try and work out the odds for that?? i was trying to explain to my girlfriend and i said 1 in 1million, anyone have any idea?