
Ever Had a Hole in One?
Posted by Double Eagle in Miscellaneous
The most recent poll question asked that question. As of this writing, there are 266 responses that break down as follows:
- No (59% – 158 Votes)
- Yes (41% – 108 Votes)
Poll inaccuracy aside, I’m a little surprised at the number of players that have had a hole in one. For a majority of the time this poll ran (up until recently), the breakdown has been fluctuating between 35-40% of players having done it.
I would have guessed the number to be somewhat lower, but I guess when I think about it, the odds say that if you play enough golf, it’s going to happen.
According to About.com, Golf Digest reported in 1999 that “one insurance company puts a PGA Tour pro’s chances at 1 in 3,756 and an amateur’s at 1 in 12,750.” A company that sells hole in one insurance puts the odds for an average player at 12,500 and the odds for a tour pro at about 2,500.
Those are reasonably close, so let’s assume the second insurance company’s odds for the sake of discussion.
That means that the majority of us will manage a hole in one some time in our first 12,500 par three holes played. Stated another way, you’d need 2,500 rounds to play that many par three holes (assuming five per course – If you only have four, then you’ll need 3,125 rounds).
In case you think that doesn’t sound like much – if you play five rounds per week, every week of the year, you’ll need over 12 years to play that many rounds. That’s a lot of golf.
So, why so many people with holes in one, despite the statistical long shot?
Well, statistically, you’re likely to make a hole in one once every 12,500 par threes played, but the odds are the same that you’ll do it the first time or the 12,500th time. So, you lucky ones got yours out of the way early.
Of course, many people have multiple holes in one. Seems wrong, considering that most of us are waiting around for our first. Mancil Davis is called “The King of Aces” for good reason. He is credited with 51 holes in one.
As with any statistical estimate, there will always be those who fall outside the calculated range. Sadly, that means that some of us will never get one, no matter how long we play.
It’s reported that Ben Hogan never scored an ace. If he never got one, I almost feel like I don’t even deserve one. I’m guessing Mancil Davis used up mine anyway.
Oh well, I’m still going to be trying. Every time I step onto the tee at a par three, it could be my time. The closest I came was about five or six years ago in late fall. I was playing on a cool, windy day and had about 150 yards to the green with the wind dead in my face. I decided to knock a little 7-iron under the wind. Unfortunately, I yanked it a little left, it ballooned up in the wind and went into the top of a huge oak tree that sits short and left of the green.
Since I couldn’t see the ball come out of the tree and given that there were leaves all over the ground, I decided to play a provisional ball. This time, I hit the exact shot I intended the first time, except it landed 6 feet short of the pin, checked, and rolled into the cup. The slap in the face came when I found my ball in a poor lie under the tree. Instead of a miracle three, I carded a run of the mill bogey. At least I can say I got the ball in the hole from the tee.
Does anyone have any good hole in one (made or missed) story to share?







TP Golf Online said:
Posted on August 23rd, 2008 at 3:02 am
Greg B. said:
Posted on August 23rd, 2008 at 11:37 am
Double Eagle said:
Posted on August 23rd, 2008 at 12:13 pm
David said:
Posted on August 23rd, 2008 at 2:31 pm
bobby said:
Posted on August 23rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Cameron - OddBlast said:
Posted on August 24th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Gary Potter said:
Posted on August 25th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Suz said:
Posted on August 25th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Artful Golfer said:
Posted on August 25th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Andy Brown said:
Posted on August 26th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Double Eagle said:
Posted on August 26th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Hole High said:
Posted on August 26th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Jim Ryan said:
Posted on March 11th, 2009 at 5:14 am